UK Subsidence Surge Forecast Dashboard
Using MORECS soil moisture deficit data, historic surge-year comparisons and Geobear subsidence case reports to identify when the UK is moving into a subsidence surge event.
Why this matters
Subsidence surge years do not arrive without warning. Before homeowners see cracks and insurers see a rise in claims, the ground often shows a clear drying pattern. By comparing current soil moisture deficit trends against previous surge years, Geobear can identify when conditions are moving towards elevated subsidence risk.
This dashboard is not a property-level diagnosis and it is not designed to make absolute predictions. It is a practical early-warning framework that combines climate context, UK weather patterns, MORECS soil moisture deficit and Geobear subsidence case reports to assess whether a surge-risk pattern is forming.
2026 early-season signal — live interpretation
Current signals indicate a strengthening watch position, not a confirmed surge signal. The latest MORECS data for Square 161 shows a clear spring drying trend: deciduous-tree SMD increased from 50.4mm on 7 April to 140.9mm on 12 May. This remains below the 218mm elevated-risk trigger, but the rate of increase is now significant.
Interpretation: April 2026 was warmer, sunnier and drier than average, with southern areas much drier. The latest MORECS release shows that drying continued into mid-May, with just 0.4mm of rainfall recorded in Square 161 during the latest week. The dashboard should now remain at strengthening watch. The risk position would escalate if SMD continues rising rapidly towards 218mm through late May and June.
| Signal | Current position — 13 May 2026 | Subsidence interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| ENSO / El Niño | Met Office reports clear signs that El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific. | Context signal only. UK impacts are indirect and not guaranteed. |
| Rainfall / pressure pattern | April was very dry in southern England; current UK forecast is showery and cool, with changeable conditions into next week. | Recent dryness is important, but current showers may slow further drying. |
| Temperature / sunshine | April was warmer and sunnier than average. MORECS Square 161 recorded 274 hours of sunshine over the five weeks to 5 May. | Strong spring sunshine has supported SMD acceleration. |
| MORECS SMD | SMD_DEC_H: 140.9mm on 12 May; SMD_GRS_H: 123.7mm. | Below trigger value 1, but rising quickly. Deciduous SMD rose 18.5mm in the latest week. |
Latest MORECS data — Square 161
The latest data shows very low rainfall and high sunshine through April into mid-May. This has translated into a marked rise in soil moisture deficit, although current values remain below the dashboard trigger thresholds.
| Week ending | Sunshine hours | Rainfall | SMD grass | SMD deciduous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Apr 2026 | 42.1h | 0.6mm | 35.8mm | 50.4mm |
| 14 Apr 2026 | 50.1h | 3.0mm | 49.6mm | 61.3mm |
| 21 Apr 2026 | 48.6h | 0.9mm | 65.4mm | 77.1mm |
| 28 Apr 2026 | 79.9h | 0.1mm | 87.3mm | 100.3mm |
| 5 May 2026 | 53.3h | 1.0mm | 108.5mm | 122.4mm |
| 12 May 2026 | 37.9h | 0.4mm | 123.7mm | 140.9mm |
London short-range weather module
London is used here as a regional proxy for the clay-rich South East. The current short-range outlook is cooler and more showery at first, reducing immediate drying pressure, before temperatures recover later in the period.
Forecast note: daily local forecasts beyond around 7–10 days become less reliable. For the second week, the dashboard should rely on the Met Office UK long-range outlook rather than precise day-by-day London detail.
Early indicators aligned with a surge pattern identified in advance
In early 2025, Geobear identified a set of climate and ground conditions that typically precede subsidence surge years. As the year progressed, those conditions emerged — with soil moisture deficit rising rapidly from late spring, crossing the first trigger threshold in June and reaching extreme levels by late July. This was followed by an almost 200% increase in Geobear subsidence case reports between July and October.
This sequence — early climate signal, confirmed ground drying, and subsequent increase in case reports — provides a validated example of how a surge-risk hypothesis can translate into real-world impact.
First trigger crossed: Week 25 | Extreme trigger crossed: Week 30 | Geobear subsidence case reports: +200%
2025 surge indicators
| Indicator | 2025 result | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Status | Surge year confirmed | SMD data and Geobear subsidence case report trends aligned. |
| First trigger | Week 25 — 243.4mm | Exceeded the 218mm elevated-risk threshold. |
| Extreme trigger | Week 30 — 323.3mm | Exceeded the 320mm extreme-risk threshold. |
| Observed impact | Almost +200% | Increase in Geobear subsidence case reports between July and October 2025. |
Key insight
MORECS provides a current picture of land condition, but the rate of soil drying and the timing of threshold crossings can create a practical early-warning window before visible property damage and subsidence case reports peak.
MORECS soil moisture deficit comparison
The chart compares 2025 against known surge years 2018 and 2022, plus 2024 as a lower-risk comparator. The 2026 line has now been updated using the latest MORECS Square 161 data to 12 May. The two horizontal lines show the trigger values used to identify elevated and extreme subsidence risk.
ENSO / El Niño forward watch
El Niño is monitored as an early climate-context signal only. It does not directly determine UK subsidence risk and should be interpreted alongside UK spring rainfall, temperature trends and MORECS soil moisture deficit.
| Layer | Role in model | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| ENSO / El Niño | Global context signal | Useful for seasonal watch, not a direct UK trigger. |
| UK weather | Regional driver | Dry, hot and sunny spring/summer conditions increase concern. |
| MORECS SMD | Ground condition evidence | Threshold crossings and acceleration provide the strongest signal. |
| Case reports | Impact validation | Confirms whether conditions translated into real-world subsidence activity. |
Speculative weather phenomenon watch
This section tracks weather and climate phenomena that may increase the probability of a subsidence surge pattern forming. These are not treated as predictions on their own. They are early indicators that become more meaningful when they align with UK rainfall deficits, high temperatures, sunshine duration and rising MORECS soil moisture deficit.
| Phenomenon | Why it matters | What would increase concern? | Confidence level |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Niño / ENSO | Provides global climate context and can influence seasonal weather patterns. | A developing El Niño coinciding with dry UK spring conditions and accelerating SMD. | Context signal only |
| Negative NAO / blocking high pressure | Can be associated with persistent dry, settled weather over the UK. | Several weeks of high pressure, low rainfall and above-average sunshine during spring or early summer. | Regional pattern signal |
| Dry spring rainfall anomaly | Reduces soil moisture recharge before peak summer evapotranspiration. | March–May rainfall materially below average, especially across clay-rich regions. | High relevance |
| Early heat and sunshine | Accelerates evapotranspiration and can bring forward soil drying. | Repeated warm, sunny weeks from April to June, particularly following a dry winter or spring. | High relevance |
| MORECS acceleration | Confirms whether climate conditions are translating into ground drying. | SMD rising rapidly towards 218mm and then 320mm, especially earlier than historic surge-year comparators. | Primary confirmation signal |
| Weekly update field | Current entry (13 May 2026) | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| ENSO / El Niño status | Developing — Met Office reports clear signs of El Niño development | Global context signal only. UK impacts remain indirect and uncertain. |
| UK pressure pattern | Changeable / low pressure nearby, with high pressure possibly building later | Current pattern may slow drying, but later settled weather could restart SMD acceleration. |
| Rainfall trend | April very dry in southern England; Square 161 recorded only 6.0mm over six weeks to 12 May | Recharge deficit has developed locally, although current showers may moderate the trend. |
| Temperature and sunshine | April warmer/sunnier than average; Square 161 recorded 311.9 sunshine hours over six weeks to 12 May | Strong sunshine has supported rapid spring SMD increase. |
| Surge hypothesis | Strengthening watch position | SMD is rising quickly but remains below the 218mm trigger. Escalate only if the rise continues into late May/June. |
Annual surge comparison
| Year | Profile | First week above 218mm | First week above 320mm | Peak SMD | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Surge year | Week 1 and again week 26 | Week 29 | 332.4mm | Extreme sustained SMD through late summer and autumn. |
| 2022 | Surge year | Week 23 | Week 26 | 332.4mm | Fast summer drying with prolonged extreme values. |
| 2024 | Elevated, not surge | Week 33 | Not reached | 258.4mm | Late-season elevation but no extreme trigger crossing. |
| 2025 | Surge year confirmed | Week 25 | Week 30 | 332.4mm | Predictive indicators preceded almost 200% growth in Geobear subsidence case reports. |
| 2026 | Active monitoring | Not reached | Not reached | 140.9mm to 12 May | SMD rising quickly after a very dry, sunny April and early May, but still below trigger thresholds. |
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Last updated: 13 May 2026 — MORECS week ending 12 May 2026
Source stack: MORECS Square 161 weekly data, Met Office UK weather and climate summaries, Met Office long-range outlook, Met Office ENSO commentary, London short-range forecast, and internal Geobear subsidence case report trends.
Data sources include MORECS soil moisture deficit modelling, historic surge-year comparisons and internal Geobear subsidence case report trends. Climate context is informed by Met Office ENSO reporting. Current-year MORECS data should continue to be added weekly to enable live 2026 tracking.