In April 2025 Geobear published a report that provided an in-depth analysis of subsidence surge events in the UK, integrating climate modelling, geological risk factors, and urban influences to predict future high-risk years. By examining historical climate trends, ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), soil moisture levels, and additional environmental indicators, the report identified key patterns that lead to subsidence events.
The analysis highlighted that prolonged dry spells, early heatwaves, and shifts in global climate drivers—such as El Niño and La Niña events—are critical in forecasting subsidence risks. Based on these insights, the report predicted 2025 as a high-risk year for a surge event.
Addendum: Confirmation of 2025 Surge Event
As of October 2025, it is confirmed that the UK experienced a significant subsidence surge, with marked increases in homeowner and insurer claims reported from July through September, particularly in high-risk clay areas across the South East, East Anglia, and Midlands.
This outcome strongly validates the April 2025 forecast published by Geobear, which correctly identified 2025 as a high-risk year due to the alignment of multiple predictive indicators:
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Below-average rainfall and high sunshine hours in March and April
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Elevated SMD (Soil Moisture Deficit) levels recorded in MORECS data
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ENSO phase transition from El Niño to neutral
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Negative NAO patterns in winter
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Persistent high-pressure blocking across southern England
These combined factors resulted in accelerated soil shrinkage and subsidence manifestations by early summer, closely mirroring the climatological profiles of previous surge years such as 2003 and 2018.
Implications for Future Forecast Accuracy
The accurate prediction of the 2025 surge significantly boosts confidence in the Geobear modelling framework and integrated methodology used in the report. The ability to identify early-year signals has now been proven to hold strong predictive validity —particularly through analysis of:
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ENSO & NAO tracking,
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SSW and AMO analysis,
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Early-year temperature and rainfall anomalies,
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Soil moisture, CSI, UHI and insurance claims overlays,
This means future predictions (e.g., 2027, 2030) made in this report should be treated with heightened credibility.
As a result, Geobear will continue to:
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Enhance its forecasting model by integrating real-time SMD and remote sensing data.
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Periodically monitor climate driver signals, adjusting forward-year surge probabilities accordingly.
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Update stakeholders annually with refined predictions based on live climate developments.
