In April 2025, Geobear published the following report, which predicted a subsidence surge event in the UK.
March having the least rainfall for 60 years in some areas of the UK, and April forecasts showing little change, could the UK be heading for a subsidence surge event? Using AI, we’ve analysed local and global climatic conditions leading up to previous surges to identify patterns and predictive signals.
The data points to 2025 as a high-risk year.
This article outlines our hypothesis and the climate drivers behind it.
As of October 2025, it is confirmed that the UK experienced a significant subsidence surge, with marked increases in homeowner and insurer claims reported from July through September, particularly in high-risk clay areas across the South East, East Anglia, and Midlands.
This outcome strongly validates the April 2025 forecast published by Geobear (see source), which correctly identified 2025 as a high-risk year due to the alignment of multiple predictive indicators:
Below-average rainfall and high sunshine hours in March and April
Elevated SMD (Soil Moisture Deficit) levels recorded in MORECS data
ENSO phase transition from El Niño to neutral
Negative NAO patterns in winter
Persistent high-pressure blocking across southern England
These combined factors resulted in accelerated soil shrinkage and subsidence manifestations by early summer, closely mirroring the climatological profiles of previous surge years such as 2003 and 2018.
The accurate prediction of the 2025 surge significantly boosts confidence in the AI-based modelling framework and integrated methodology used in this report. The ability to identify early-year signals—particularly through a blend of:
ENSO & NAO tracking,
SSW and AMO analysis,
Early-year temperature and rainfall anomalies,
Soil moisture, CSI, UHI and insurance claims overlays,
...has now been proven to hold strong predictive validity.
This means future predictions (e.g., 2027, 2030) made in this report should be treated with heightened credibility.
As a result, Geobear will continue to:
Enhance its forecasting model by integrating real-time SMD and remote sensing data.
Monitor climate driver signals monthly, adjusting forward-year surge probabilities accordingly.
Update stakeholders annually with refined predictions based on live climate developments.
This report provides an in-depth analysis of subsidence surge events in the UK, integrating AI-driven climate modelling, geological risk factors, and urban influences to predict future high-risk years. By examining historical climate trends, ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), soil moisture levels, and additional environmental indicators, this report identifies key patterns that lead to subsidence events.
The analysis highlights that prolonged dry spells, early heatwaves, and shifts in global climate drivers—such as El Niño and La Niña events—can be used in forecasting subsidence risks. Based on these insights, the report predicts future high-risk years for subsidence surges, allowing Geobear to plan resources proactively and mitigate potential customer impacts.
This report has been generated using advanced AI-driven climate and geological analysis, integrating historical data, meteorological trends, and predictive modelling to provide a comprehensive outlook on UK subsidence surge events. By leveraging machine learning, satellite monitoring, and climate forecasting, this report enhances the ability to anticipate and mitigate subsidence risks with data-driven insights.
Subsidence events in the UK are strongly influenced by prolonged dry weather conditions, often linked to broader atmospheric and climatic patterns. This report expands upon previous analyses by integrating additional global and regional climate indicators, geological risks, and urban influences to enhance the accuracy of subsidence surge predictions.
Subsidence surge years were identified as:
These years experienced significant increases in subsidence-related insurance claims, indicating a strong correlation with prolonged dry spells and soil shrinkage.
Analysis of weather conditions from January to April in the surge years revealed key similarities:
ENSO phases significantly influence UK weather:
Using the expanded dataset, we can refine predictions for future subsidence surge events.
| Year | Predicted ENSO Phase | Risk Factors for UK Subsidence Surge |
| 2025 | El Niño to Neutral | High risk – weakening El Niño may lead to a drier summer. |
| 2027 | Strong La Niña Developing | Medium-High risk – La Niña could cause persistent summer dryness. |
| 2030 | El Niño Developing | High risk – likely warm, dry conditions similar to 2003 and 2018. |
| 2033 | La Niña Weakening to Neutral | Medium risk – dry summer possible if preceded by a cold winter. |
By integrating global climate trends, geological factors, and urban influences, the industry can significantly enhance its ability to anticipate and mitigate subsidence risks. The expanded dataset offers a more precise forecast model, allowing for data-driven resource planning and proactive customer engagement.
Get in touch with Geobear today for sterling subsidence solutions.